- flooding of Bácsa: 10%
According to the news, it increased to 50% because of the crappy embankment in Györújfalu (~4 km from us).
Wouldn't there be any obstacle in the way of the water between Györújfalu and Bácsa? When I made my estimations, I thought there would... (I gave the 40% mostly because of Györújfalu, where the dam was under construction when the flood came, but I didn't know that it threatens Bácsa.) Btw, people were evacuated from Györújfalu, but not from Bácsa, so the experts still think that it is safe.