Author Topic: Estimation game  (Read 52797 times)

CTG

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Estimation game
« on: October 22, 2011, 10:24:21 AM »
Once upon a time we played quiz games here. Now I start a new one: try to tip the correct values / dates WITHOUT Google or any other aid and send me the answers in private message. Rules are easy: 1 point/question for the closest tips. Deadline: 1st November, midnight.

1 Date of Alonso's first race in F1
2 Molar weight of caffeine
3 Height of Golden Gate Bridge (from water level to the highest point, not the road)
4 Northern geographical coordinate of Kreml in Moscow
5 Empty weight of Antonov AN-225, the largest cargo aircraft on Earth
6 Top speed record of downhill cycling
7 Number of verses in Bible
8 Release date of Windows XP (for sale)
9 Distance between Buenos Aires and Budapest
10 Nutritional value of 100 g Toblerone (kcal)
11 Date of Saddam Hussein's execution (do you remember exactly?)
12 Lowest temperature ever recorded in Australia
13 Population of Togo

13+1 Number of days between the catastrophies in Chernobyl and Fukushima

zaqrack

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Re: Estimation game
« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2011, 05:36:32 PM »
OK I will really suck here but lets see:

1 Date of Alonso's first race in F1
2000
2 Molar weight of caffeine

10^-8grams (hate chemistry!!)
3 Height of Golden Gate Bridge (from water level to the highest point, not the road)
190m
4 Northern geographical coordinate of Kreml in Moscow
60
5 Empty weight of Antonov AN-225, the largest cargo aircraft on Earth
80 tons
6 Top speed record of downhill cycling

235km/h
7 Number of verses in Bible

35673
8 Release date of Windows XP (for sale)

2001 june 1
9 Distance between Buenos Aires and Budapest

13900km
10 Nutritional value of 100 g Toblerone (kcal)

590kcal
11 Date of Saddam Hussein's execution (do you remember exactly?)

2004 may 10
12 Lowest temperature ever recorded in Australia

-30celsius
13 Population of Togo

14.5million
13+1 Number of days between the catastrophies in Chernobyl and Fukushima

9430


CTG

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Re: Estimation game
« Reply #2 on: October 22, 2011, 11:14:21 PM »
send me the answers in private message

PM... :D

Duplode

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Re: Estimation game
« Reply #3 on: October 23, 2011, 06:55:11 AM »
Just did it (without looking at Zak's guesses!  :D) and sent the answers. Generally I'm not very good with guesses about physical things - in particular, my estimations of distances in 3D suck. Maybe I can guess at least the uncertainty in my guesses, though  :)

CTG

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Re: Estimation game
« Reply #4 on: October 23, 2011, 09:24:24 PM »
3 players so far, match is really tight (5-5-4).

4 players, as far as I remember Poo's tips, standings are 4-4-3-3 at the moment.
« Last Edit: October 24, 2011, 01:37:46 PM by CTG »

Chulk

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Re: Estimation game
« Reply #5 on: October 25, 2011, 09:35:31 AM »
4 players, as far as I remember Poo's tips, standings are 4-4-3-3 at the moment.
5!
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CTG

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Re: Estimation game
« Reply #6 on: October 25, 2011, 12:59:00 PM »
4 players, as far as I remember Poo's tips, standings are 4-4-3-3 at the moment.
5!

Some of your tips are surprisingly good (for example Alonso) and you have some damned bad, too. :D

CTG

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Re: Estimation game
« Reply #7 on: October 26, 2011, 12:49:40 PM »
4-4-3-2-1

BonzaiJoe

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Re: Estimation game
« Reply #8 on: October 26, 2011, 02:33:59 PM »
How do you calculate the results?
But we can't be quite sure.


CTG

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Re: Estimation game
« Reply #9 on: October 26, 2011, 04:54:26 PM »
How do you calculate the results?

1 point for the best tip for each questions, calculating with absolute and not with relative difference.

Duplode

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Re: Estimation game
« Reply #10 on: October 26, 2011, 05:03:14 PM »
One very interesting thing about this kind of competition is that even if the score between the two players who join first is something like A 12 x 2 B, B can still win if enough competitors chip away A's advantage.

CTG

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Re: Estimation game
« Reply #11 on: October 26, 2011, 05:05:10 PM »
One very interesting thing about this kind of competition is that even if the score between the two players who join first is something like A 12 x 2 B, B can still win if enough competitors chip away A's advantage.

Yeah, XY was leading the whole thing few days ago with 5 points - now he's just 4th with 2.

Akoss Poo

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Re: Estimation game
« Reply #12 on: October 26, 2011, 08:18:53 PM »
I also find the scoring system too simplified. But in a game in which we should trust first in each other, maybe this type of evaluation is enough.

The relative difference would be a better option. But if we still just take the best tips into consideration, the winner can still have a lot of awfully false tips besides his few deadly correct ones.

A relatively simple but correct method would be to use the relative difference type of evaluation, with giving x pts for the best player, x-1 pts for the second etc., 1 pt for the last player (x=amount of players).

A sum total of mistake percents was my first idea, but the huge difference between difficulty of questions and the commitable errors (in some cases, even the order of magnitude is to be found out, in other cases, a seemingly slight difference can be fatal as well; let alone for example the temperature value... should we count it in Kelvin or Celsius units?) make this method unsuitable.
« Last Edit: October 26, 2011, 08:21:47 PM by Akoss Poo »
A jó nök is büdöset szarnak!

Chulk

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Re: Estimation game
« Reply #13 on: October 29, 2011, 11:09:37 AM »
4 players, as far as I remember Poo's tips, standings are 4-4-3-3 at the moment.
5!

Some of your tips are surprisingly good (for example Alonso) and you have some damned bad, too. :D
I really had no clue on Chemistry, Bible verses or Cycling, so I just took some wild guesses there. About Alonso, I did some pretty good logic thinking to realize after betting the day I chose was not Sunday... Oh, well... When will we know the results? We should do something like "2 weeks with no replies, round ends" so the wait is not that long, what do you think, guys?
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Chulk

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Re: Estimation game
« Reply #14 on: October 29, 2011, 11:11:09 AM »
Yes, I realize I answered only 4 days ago, dismiss my previous comment about that. I've been sleeping 2 hours/day for 11 days now, so bare with me please.
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