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Estimation game

Started by CTG, October 22, 2011, 10:24:21 AM

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CTG

Once upon a time we played quiz games here. Now I start a new one: try to tip the correct values / dates WITHOUT Google or any other aid and send me the answers in private message. Rules are easy: 1 point/question for the closest tips. Deadline: 1st November, midnight.

1 Date of Alonso's first race in F1
2 Molar weight of caffeine
3 Height of Golden Gate Bridge (from water level to the highest point, not the road)
4 Northern geographical coordinate of Kreml in Moscow
5 Empty weight of Antonov AN-225, the largest cargo aircraft on Earth
6 Top speed record of downhill cycling
7 Number of verses in Bible
8 Release date of Windows XP (for sale)
9 Distance between Buenos Aires and Budapest
10 Nutritional value of 100 g Toblerone (kcal)
11 Date of Saddam Hussein's execution (do you remember exactly?)
12 Lowest temperature ever recorded in Australia
13 Population of Togo

13+1 Number of days between the catastrophies in Chernobyl and Fukushima

zaqrack

OK I will really suck here but lets see:

1 Date of Alonso's first race in F1
2000
2 Molar weight of caffeine

10^-8grams (hate chemistry!!)
3 Height of Golden Gate Bridge (from water level to the highest point, not the road)
190m
4 Northern geographical coordinate of Kreml in Moscow
60
5 Empty weight of Antonov AN-225, the largest cargo aircraft on Earth
80 tons
6 Top speed record of downhill cycling

235km/h
7 Number of verses in Bible

35673
8 Release date of Windows XP (for sale)

2001 june 1
9 Distance between Buenos Aires and Budapest

13900km
10 Nutritional value of 100 g Toblerone (kcal)

590kcal
11 Date of Saddam Hussein's execution (do you remember exactly?)

2004 may 10
12 Lowest temperature ever recorded in Australia

-30celsius
13 Population of Togo

14.5million
13+1 Number of days between the catastrophies in Chernobyl and Fukushima

9430


CTG


Duplode

Just did it (without looking at Zak's guesses!  :D) and sent the answers. Generally I'm not very good with guesses about physical things - in particular, my estimations of distances in 3D suck. Maybe I can guess at least the uncertainty in my guesses, though  :)

Chulk

Quote from: CTG on October 23, 2011, 09:24:24 PM
4 players, as far as I remember Poo's tips, standings are 4-4-3-3 at the moment.
5!
Yes, it is me. No, I'm not back at racing (for now...)

BonzaiJoe

How do you calculate the results?
But we can't be quite sure.


CTG

Quote from: BonzaiJoe on October 26, 2011, 02:33:59 PM
How do you calculate the results?

1 point for the best tip for each questions, calculating with absolute and not with relative difference.

Duplode

One very interesting thing about this kind of competition is that even if the score between the two players who join first is something like A 12 x 2 B, B can still win if enough competitors chip away A's advantage.

CTG

Quote from: Duplode on October 26, 2011, 05:03:14 PM
One very interesting thing about this kind of competition is that even if the score between the two players who join first is something like A 12 x 2 B, B can still win if enough competitors chip away A's advantage.

Yeah, XY was leading the whole thing few days ago with 5 points - now he's just 4th with 2.

Akoss Poo a.k.a. Zorromeister

#9
I also find the scoring system too simplified. But in a game in which we should trust first in each other, maybe this type of evaluation is enough.

The relative difference would be a better option. But if we still just take the best tips into consideration, the winner can still have a lot of awfully false tips besides his few deadly correct ones.

A relatively simple but correct method would be to use the relative difference type of evaluation, with giving x pts for the best player, x-1 pts for the second etc., 1 pt for the last player (x=amount of players).

A sum total of mistake percents was my first idea, but the huge difference between difficulty of questions and the commitable errors (in some cases, even the order of magnitude is to be found out, in other cases, a seemingly slight difference can be fatal as well; let alone for example the temperature value... should we count it in Kelvin or Celsius units?) make this method unsuitable.
Chürműű! :-)

513.59 km

Chulk

Quote from: CTG on October 25, 2011, 12:59:00 PM
Quote from: Chulk on October 25, 2011, 09:35:31 AM
Quote from: CTG on October 23, 2011, 09:24:24 PM
4 players, as far as I remember Poo's tips, standings are 4-4-3-3 at the moment.
5!

Some of your tips are surprisingly good (for example Alonso) and you have some damned bad, too. :D
I really had no clue on Chemistry, Bible verses or Cycling, so I just took some wild guesses there. About Alonso, I did some pretty good logic thinking to realize after betting the day I chose was not Sunday... Oh, well... When will we know the results? We should do something like "2 weeks with no replies, round ends" so the wait is not that long, what do you think, guys?
Yes, it is me. No, I'm not back at racing (for now...)

Chulk

Yes, I realize I answered only 4 days ago, dismiss my previous comment about that. I've been sleeping 2 hours/day for 11 days now, so bare with me please.
Yes, it is me. No, I'm not back at racing (for now...)

CTG

#12
Round 2

1, Altitude of volcano Etna
2, Average speed of Railjet EuroCity trains between Salzburg and München
3, World record of hot-dog eating in 10 minutes
4, Gravity on Mars (!hint Earth ~9.81 m/s2)
5, Number of released Sounth Park episodes (NOW! Not tonight, but at the moment! It's Wednesday now, so maybe we'll have a new in the evening)
6, Number of Toyota employees (worldwide, 2010)
7, Alcohol content of Kasteel Bruin beer (%)
8, Chance for rolling sum 13 with 4 dices (%)
9, Birth of the REAL CTG (F1 driver)  - for Zak and Duplode: not only the year, but month and day too!
10, The longest documented and verified human lifetime (years + days)
11, Number of page views in "Disgusting things" topic (AT THE MOMENT, don't dare to check!)
12, Power lap time of Lamborghini Murcielago LP640 on Top Gear's test track (!hint: Renault R24 F1 car - 59.0 seconds; Suzuki Liana 1:44.4)
13, 'New Times Roman' letters first time ever used in a newspaper (only year, I couldn't find the exact date :D)

+1, decimal value of 1010100101101010111010101101110001010010110 binary number

zaqrack


Duplode