Greetings, pipsqueaks! It's that time of the year again: ZakStunts round nine has just finished, which means that, as the picture of discards gets clearer, we have a nice opportunity to look at what lies in store for the battling competitors. So let's do that!
Meanings of the columns:
Current is the sum of points at the end of ZCT290.
Discards are the three worst results so far, which may still be discarded.
Available is how many additional points a pipsqueak would get with three perfect races at the end of the season, with the discards having been subtracted.
Maximum is the maximum possible points, current plus available. The sums in the Current, Available and Maximum columns show the "base points" and PTB components that make up the respective totals.
1st and 2nd places| Räcer | Current | Discards | Available | Maximum |
| Argammon | 105 + 7.5 = 112.5 | 10 + 11 + 12 = 33 | 3 + 6 = 9 | 108 + 13.5 = 121.5 |
| MiDiaN | 88 + 7.5 = 95.5 | 4 + 10 + 10 = 24 | 12 + 6 = 18 | 100 + 13.5 = 113.5 |
| Duplode | 90 + 5.5 = 95.5 | 8 + 9 + 9 = 26 | 10 + 6 = 16 | 100 + 11.5 = 111.5 |
The fight for the title is still open, but only just. While Duplode can no longer overtake Argammon, MiDiaN remains in contention at the beginning of round ten, largely thanks to having the joint highest PTB tally (7.5). To capture the trophy, he will need not only to win the final three races with Argammon reaching no higher than third place in any of them
and no more than 0.5 PTB total, but also to earn the elusive prize of PTB +2 three out of three times. (5 PTB across the final rounds won't be enough, as even if Argammon got no further points, his seven wins guarantee he'd win a tiebreaker at 112.5 points.) Time to keep an eye on those PTB margins...
The overall second place, in contrast, is completely open, with MiDiaN and Duplode tied on total points! MiDiaN, it should be noted, has a significant advantage due to two extra available points. Additionally, KyLiE has mathematical chances of reaching a podium place by overtaking either (or both) of them; the path towards that is about as difficult as MiDiaN's path towards the title.
4th and 5th places| Räcer | Current | Discards | Available | Maximum |
| KyLiE | 72 + 3 = 75 | 6 + 7 + 7 = 20 | 16 + 6 = 22 | 88 + 9 = 97 |
| HerrNove | 52.9 + 4 = 56.9 | 0.9 + 3 + 5 = 8.9 | 27.1 + 6 = 33.1 | 80 + 10 = 90 |
| Alan Rotoi | 53.6 + 3 = 56.6 | 0.65 + 0.95 + 2 = 3.6 | 32.4 + 6 = 38.4 | 86 + 9 = 95 |
Just below the podium positions, we have a very interesting three-way contest. While at the moment Alan Rotoi has the lowest total points among this trio, he also has by far the most available points, which makes even a charge towards 4th place, currently in KyLiE's hands, quite plausible. HerrNove, in contrast, might need gaps larger than one position to Alan in the final races if he's to retain the 5th place... unless, that is, in case he builds a sizeable gap in PTB points, something he's been quite adept lately!
7th place| Räcer | Current | Discards | Available | Maximum |
| Spoonboy | 47 + 1.5 = 48.5 | 2 + 3 + 5 = 10 | 26 + 6 = 32 | 71 + 7.5 = 77.5 |
| Frieshansen | 39.8 + 0.5 = 40.3 | 0.9 + 0.9 + 1 = 2.8 | 33.2 + 6 = 38.2 | 73 + 6.5 = 79.5 |
We might still see a reenactment of 2024's closest end-of-season duel. While Spoonboy has gotten the upper hand over the last few rounds, Frieshansen has an ample margin of available points to close down the gap and fight for 7th place overall.
9th place| Räcer | Current | Discards | Available | Maximum |
| Mortimer McMire | 31.95 + 0.5 = 32.45 | 0.95 + 1 + 2 = 3.95 | 32.05 + 6 = 38.05 | 64 + 6.5 = 70.5 |
| Zapper | 30 | 1 + 1 + 3 = 5 | 31 + 6 = 37 | 61 + 6 = 67 |
While Mortimer has done steady work over the last several races to consolidate his provisional 9th place, it's still all to play for. A 3-0 head-to-head in favour of Zapper over the final races could bring the gap to half a point. In such a scenario, the PTB +0.5 Zapper is in the cusp of reaching could prove crucial...
Am League, 1st place| Räcer | Current | Discards | Available | Maximum |
| HerrNove | 104 | 10 + 11 + 11 = 32 | 4 | 108 |
| Mortimer McMire | 94 | 9 + 10 + 10 = 29 | 7 | 101 |
Congratulations to HerrNove for having mathematically assured the 2025 Am League title! The scenario is remarkably similar to Argammon versus MiDiaN on the overall scoreboard, except that in this case there's no PTB to allow Mortimer a final charge against the odds.
Am League, 3rd place| Räcer | Current | Discards | Available | Maximum |
| Cas | 75 | 6 + 7 + 7 = 20 | 16 | 91 |
| Shoegazing Leo | 65 | 5 + 6 + 7 = 19 | 17 | 82 |
Cas is close to reaching the Am League 3rd place that escaped him at the very last moment of the previous season. A 3rd place and two 4th places will suffice to keep him ahead of Leo.
> Congratulations to HerrNove for having mathematically assured the 2025 Am League title!
Lol, not yet ;D I might be promoted away from the league if I land on the "pro" podium in this or the next race. Failing that, to ensure a promotion at the end of the year, I need to get one extra XP: I already have 5, plus 4 from winning the Am league. So I need either another top 6 result (doable, but if Alan Rotoi is back in business the difficulty will be higher than before) or to land in the global top 6 (very good chances but not yet mathematically secured). Getting promoted is my seasonal objective, so I'll do my best to secure it as soon as possible.
Anyway, I love this kind of projections and you saved me a lot of work since I wanted to figure out what place each driver can still aim to. Thanks for the great post!
@HerrNove, in that case. I'll be extra rooting for your first podium finish ;) !
Quote from: HerrNove on September 24, 2025, 07:53:39 AM> Congratulations to HerrNove for having mathematically assured the 2025 Am League title!
Lol, not yet ;D I might be promoted away from the league if I land on the "pro" podium in this or the next race.
Clairwil is right, though: graduation does not erase your past results in the Am League. If you reach a podium on ZCT291, you'll not be on Am for the final two races, but nonetheless you'll have 104+ points on the Am season scoreboard. So, rejoice! :D
Quote from: Duplode on September 24, 2025, 12:45:40 PMClairwil is right, though
I should have known that ladies are always right :D I am a married man, after all.
MiDiaN should be the moral champion, but since he was a pro driver already in the last century I guess I can enjoy my amateur title with clean consciousness! ZakStunts 2025 was my first Stunts tournament ever, and actually the first racing tournament I ever took part in.
On a different topic, the masters really seem set to fight from the first minute this month. I can imagine Argammon is striving to get the mathematical certainty of his championship as soon as possible, and his competitors are hard at work to delay the party. Given the mechanics of PTB and its Fibonacci-based coefficients, the title might be mathematically awarded in a strange moment like the dead of night of a random Tuesday...
Great analysis. Thanks @Clairwill!
Quote from: HerrNove on September 24, 2025, 02:29:03 PMQuote from: Duplode on September 24, 2025, 12:45:40 PMClairwil is right, though
I should have known that ladies are always right :D I am a married man, after all.
MiDiaN should be the moral champion, but since he was a pro driver already in the last century I guess I can enjoy my amateur title with clean consciousness! ZakStunts 2025 was my first Stunts tournament ever, and actually the first racing tournament I ever took part in.
On a different topic, the masters really seem set to fight from the first minute this month. I can imagine Argammon is striving to get the mathematical certainty of his championship as soon as possible, and his competitors are hard at work to delay the party. Given the mechanics of PTB and its Fibonacci-based coefficients, the title might be mathematically awarded in a strange moment like the dead of night of a random Tuesday...
This happened today. If I am not mistaken, MiDiaN cannot reach 2 bonus points anymore which settles the case. :)
Yeah, with how messed up the current PTB system is, I'm fine settling for silver.
@Argammon , congratulations for your Championship title! 🎉🎉 A really dominant performance!