How much is the chance for... topic. Mathematically Ayrton can win. Or not?
If Renato won't finish in TOP15 this time (LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL) and he won't start in December, he'll have 149.5 pts. If Ayrton wins this race and the next too while earning two LTB points then he'll have 149 pts. On the other hand his minimal amount of points is 117. RENATO IS ALREADY THE CHAMPION!!! Or... If CTG wins this race and do 15+2 points on the next track: 140 pts (minimal points: 126). Damn, too far. Bonzai Joe? Maximum 133 pts.
Okay, so it's clear.
Renato Biker is the champion.
Ayrton will catch the silver medal if he makes at least 23 points on Z69 and Z70 (or CTG works just crappy)
CTG can reach bronze medal for sure if he makes at least 25 points on Z69 and Z70. (or Bonzai Joe works just crappy)
We will know a lot more at the weekend.
Official: Renato Biker won the championship. Congratulations!
Still open: 2nd-3rd-4th place fight.
Possible intervals:
CTG 131-139 pts
Ayrton 117-134 pts
Bonzai Joe 113-126 pts
Silver goes to CTG if he earns at least 13 pts OR only 4 points less than Ayrton.
Bronze goes to Bonzai Joe if he earns at least 9 points more than Ayrton (almost equal to Ayrton won't start criteria).
Your text doesn't correspond to your numbers...
Maybe I explained it bad but numbers are correct. And you have to take care about the worst two races factor that can change by a bad or missed last race.
If Ayrton won't race: 2 CTG, 3 Bonzai Joe (at least 9 points), 4 Ayrton - your only chance to be medalist.
LTB can change it by 1 or 2 points but without that we can reach the following scores.
| name | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th | 9th | 10th | 11th | 12th | 13th | 14th | 15th | 16th- |
| CTG | 137 | 136 | 135 | 134 | 133 | 132 | 131 | 131 | 131 | 131 | 131 | 131 | 131 | 131 | 131 | 131 |
| Ayrton | 132 | 131 | 130 | 129 | 128 | 127 | 126 | 125 | 124 | 123 | 122 | 121 | 120 | 119 | 118 | 117 |
| Bonzai Joe | 124 | 123 | 122 | 121 | 120 | 119 | 118 | 117 | 116 | 115 | 114 | 113 | 113 | 113 | 113 | 113 |
Okay thanks, it's clearer now