Elo-like ratings for ZakStunts: The Folyami Project

[Argammon]

I finally entered the top 10 in the rankings, yay! 

And everybody around me is already a Zakstunts champion. 

[Duplode]

The ZCT260 update of the ratings is now live! Three pipsqueaks reached a personal best rating this time: race winner Argammon (fourth consecutive PB!), Erik (with a remarkable +86 change!), and returning GTAMan. Below is the updated evolution chart:

[Duplode]

The ratings have been updated for ZCT261! In this race, we've had five pipsqueaks reaching their personal best ratings: Argammon (now withing touching distance of the second place) Frieshansen, Erik, GTAMan and KyLiE. The latter three had particularly strong showings in this race, gaining more than 50 points! Below is the updated evolution chart:

[Duplode]

The ZCT262 update of the ratings is now live! In this month, Mark Nailwood joined the rankings by completing his fifth race, and Igor returned to the ZakStunts scoreboards after eighteen rounds. Three pipsqueaks reached their personal best: Argammon (now within touching distance of first place!), Erik Barros (third 50+ rating improvement in a row!) and KyLiE (reaching the 1900 points milestone and breaking into the historical top 20!). Below is the updated evolution chart:

[JTK]

Bett than Neil McRae, that's all I ever wanted. 😈

[Duplode]

The ratings have been updated for ZCT263! This round featured a lead change, as a fourth consecutive victory has brought Argammon to the top of the current ranking. Personal best ratings were achieved by Argammon, Erik, KyLiE and Mark Nailwood. This month has also seen the return of dstien to the current ranking after nearly seven years. Below is the update evolution chart:

[Erik Barros]

I need to save this image before my graph starts going down hehehe

[Duplode]

Slightly late, but here are the updated ratings for ZCT264! This round saw personal best ratings for Argammon (consolidating his lead), Erik, KyLiE and Ryoma. Below is the evolution chart:

[Duplode]

Here are the updated ratings after ZCT265! In this round, I retook the lead from Argammon, if only by a solitary point, and Marco entered the ranking for the first time this year. There were quite a few personal bests: Argammon, Cas, KyLiE, Mark Nailwood (biggest gain in the round at +46) and Ryoma. Below is the evolution chart:

[Cas]

Looks like my efforts do result in improvement

[Argammon]

I have the feeling there is rating inflation going on. I haven't done any thorough analysis but here are some indications:


-If you sum up the plusses and minuses the end result is positive every month. This month the sum is +54.
-After C263 I am slightly in front of Duplode. Then I win C264 and Duplode wins C265, yet he suddenly is in front of me.
-Alain who I had close battles with is 200 rating points below me. I think I improved a little compared to the years 2003-2006 but probably not so tremendously.

This is a great project Duplode. It Would be nice if you could look into the issue more thoroughly then I did. 

[Duplode]

It Would be nice if you could look into the issue more thoroughly then I did. 

Sure! Later I will rerun some diagnostics involving global properties of the ratings. These can be tricky to interpret given how the pool of pipsqueaks is always changing, but they might provide some signal on whether there's something unusual going on. Meanwhile, here's my preliminary take on the things you've noted above:

On the monthly sum of changes: The ranking shown in the site doesn't give a full picture, as active pipsqueaks that still haven't reached five races aren't included. Once they are accounted for, the sum of changes in ZCT265 goes down from +54 to +32. For the preceding couple of races, the effect is larger still: +81 to -214 in ZCT264 (the sum now dominated by first entries, which I'm regarding as rating changes from the 1500 default value), and +73 to -96 in ZCT263. This kind of fluctuation stems from the provisional factors, which mean the changes involving pipsqueaks who have recently entered the ranking won't add up to zero, and they don't necessarily lead to meaningful inflation or deflation in the long run.

On our relative positions: You had reached the top of the ranking in ZCT263 by a single point (2192 to 2191). Your win in ZCT264 opened a bit of distance (2213 to 2196), which I have now clawed back (2219 to 2220 -- a single point again, but now in may favour). After one win each, we're almost where we were started (not exactly at the same place, as the gap opening up slightly in ZCT264 led to a slightly larger swing in the opposite direction in ZCT265.)

On Alan: Given how the current rating tends to reflect recent form, looking a bit further back to Alan's personal best reached in 2022 (ZCT254, 2213) might provide a fuller picture. It's also worth noting that Alan lost more than 100 points in ZCT262 alone, even if, a few races later, the overall effect looks less dramatic: given that Alan's rating has remained broadly stable since, it appears likely that, assuming a similar form were to be maintained, his rating would have converged to ~2040 even without the ZCT262 outlier, though that would perhaps happen closer to the end of the season. (And of course, a win or two by Alan would have him narrowing the gap quite a lot.)

[Duplode]

Here are the updated ratings for ZCT266! Spoonboy has entered the ranking for the first time this month. The round has also had personal best ratings for Argammon, me, Erik, Frieshansen (reaching 1900+ points) and Mark Nailwood. Below is the evolution chart:

[Argammon]

It would be a great honor to become the highest ranked European driver in the historical rankings. The south Americans are out of reach. 

[Duplode]

The ratings have been updated for ZCT267! Personal best ratings were attained this round by Argammon (retaking the current ranking lead, and entering the historical top 5!), me, Frieshansen, Mark Nailwood and Spoonboy (triple digit improvement!). Below is the evolution chart: