Politics around the world

[CTG]

Btw estimation game for the next Hungarian elections? (spring of 2014)

An early tip:

44% - Fidesz
20% - MSZP
12% - Jobbik
11% - Együtt 2014 (Bajnai's new party)
3.5% - DK (Gyurcsány's new party)
2.5% - LMP
7% - for other smaller parties

[BonzaiJoe]

How come? Do Hungarians not care about democracy? What's the explanation for the large share of Fidesz-votes? I don't understand. I mean, MSZP doesn't have to be even a half decent party to be a better choice than Fidesz.

[Akoss Poo a.k.a. Zorromeister]

How come? Do Hungarians not care about democracy? What's the explanation for the large share of Fidesz-votes? I don't understand. I mean, MSZP doesn't have to be even a half decent party to be a better choice than Fidesz.

I also don't know. Whoever I know, all people are against Fidesz...

[Usrin]

How come? Do Hungarians not care about democracy? What's the explanation for the large share of Fidesz-votes? I don't understand. I mean, MSZP doesn't have to be even a half decent party to be a better choice than Fidesz.

See my earlier post:

These percentages are measured only between those who are sure that they would vote at the elections. In Hungary, it is less than 50% of the adult population. The majority is disappointed by politicians in general (due to arrogance, corruption, etc., which was also seen during the previous governments).

Even if they don't like Fidesz, they can't find any alternative. Maybe because there isn't. Opposition leaders still don't show real plans about how would they govern, they are rather fighting with each other. One more thing: people are strongly manipulated by the media. Not with direct Fidesz propaganda (it is also strong, but only the most stupid ones believe it), but with a lot of artificially created breaks in the society. Workers hate students, city dwellers hate villagers, motorists hate cyclists, etc., believing that their problems are caused by the other group. While people care about such stupid things instead of politics, Fidesz leaders happily destroy their rights and steals their future wealth.

[CTG]

It's also worth to check the campaign billboards. The take home message is always quite primitive: "vote for us, because the other side is the maffia".



Text: "They don't deserve more chance! Because they had already 8 years to prove."



Text: "Gyurcsány-Bajnai alliance. They ruined the country TOGETHER. Once was enough from that! We don't forget!"



Text: "They live better already. And you? Simicska-Orbán maffia government"



Text: "Orbán-Hoffmann alliance. They ruined the education TOGETHER. Enough already!" (copycats... )



But my favorite one... although it's just an internet meme:



Text: "Orbán Viktor. He ruined the country alone. And he's not ready yet."

[CTG]

My political preferences, according to Vokskabin poll. Funny draw between Jobbik and MLP (Hungarian Liberal Party)...

Poo? Usrin? Zak? (Others? If I have some time, I'll translate the questions.)

[zaqrack]

I am as liberal as it gets, but that party is a joke.

[Akoss Poo a.k.a. Zorromeister]

Oi! :-)

[CTG]

Oi! :-)

Not as OI as I am!

Btw your results don't really show big differences (between ~37 and ~67). But the most surprising fact: Zak is closer to Jobbik than to Fidesz!

[BonzaiJoe]

That was really saddening, seeing your graphs (except Zak's of course). No wonder Hungary is getting more and more fascist.

[CTG]

That was really saddening, seeing your graphs (except Zak's of course). No wonder Hungary is getting more and more fascist.

You should read the questions before you say anything about our results... (I won't vote for Jobbik.)

I guess you speak German, so here you are: http://www.vokskabin.hu/de/Questionnaire/Index (if you have any questions about the background of each points, just tell)

Btw even the most optimistic pollsters predict a huge Fidesz victory: the latest polls showed 49% for the governing party, only 30% for the left-wing alliance (MSZP-Együtt 2014-DK-MLP) and 18% for Jobbik (they are getting stronger and stronger again).

[alanrotoi]

That was really saddening, seeing your graphs (except Zak's of course). No wonder Hungary is getting more and more fascist.

It is an issue that occurs in many countries of Europe. France and Austria has the most relevant popular support of this ideology. Isn't it?

[Akoss Poo a.k.a. Zorromeister]

Btw even the most optimistic pollsters predict a huge Fidesz victory: the latest polls showed 49% for the governing party, only 30% for the left-wing alliance (MSZP-Együtt 2014-DK-MLP) and 18% for Jobbik (they are getting stronger and stronger again).

That's why I think that the whole thing will be cheated to the highest extent. 90 percent of the people I know (including me) hates FIDESZ and would vote for the 'everything but FIDESZ' option, no matter if he/she is liberal, communist, fascist, egoist, shittist, fartist or anythingist...

[BonzaiJoe]

Okay, those questions could have been worse, but there's still cause for concern.

What's "Együtt 2014-PM"? I'm voting for them.

[zaqrack]

That's the party of Gordon Bajnai who was leading the country for a year before FIDESZ was elected and a group of former LMP members who have split when LMP refused to cooperate with the socialist party.

Actually, there are only four real choices this year as several parties are starting joint lists for better chances to beat FIDESZ - they have modified the voting law to favour big parties. 

A. FIDESZ + KDNP, the first we know, the latter being a very small ultra-catholic party containing probably the biggest assholes in Hungary.   

B. KORMÁNYVÁLTÁS = EGYÜTT 2014 + PM + MSZP + DK + MLP, the big coalition of the opposition, recently changed name to KORMÁNYVÁLTÁS (change of government) who promote change,  but promoted by people who have sit for 10+ years in the parliament and have proved totally unable to govern properly. So their credibility is questioned by many, including me. I would be fine voting on EGYÜTT + PM if that would not mean voting on MSZP and DK at the same time. The latter two are at least as unaccaptable proven through their track record as is FIDESZ.

C. JOBBIK, who have started to act more consolidated to appeal to FIDESZ voters. Their extreme-right wing did not like this and have split but will not be able to start on the elections. They refuse to cooperate with any leaders from the past 24 years.

D. LMP, the small green-leftist party which has undergone a serious internal crisis, splitting twice in half and is now totally unorganized. One thing they insist on and that is in common with JOBBIK - refusing cooperation with past leaders.

There are additonal 25-30 small parties who have absolutely no chance to get mandates. 

So who to vote for?
FIDESZ - hell no, and mainly not because of how they govern and what they say (though that would be a good reason by itself), but rather because they had a once-in-a-lifetime chance to get Hungary back on track for at least my kids to be able to live in a proper country, and they DID NOT EVEN TRY. The other major reason is how they have destroyed the education system. Teachers can only use state-approved boosk to teach, supplied by the state - what the skid are they thinking?   

JOBBIK - no, I won't vote on those who insult my family, throw eggs on gays and throw the EU flag out the window of the parliament even if they do have some valid points. If Hungary would not be part of the European Union anymore I would never return. 

LMP - I don't agree with at least 50% of what they say and if they cannot govern their party, how could they govern a country? But still an option to consider just to give them 4 additional years to strengthen and develop. That means 4 years additional FIDESZ rule... hard choice.

KORMÁNYVÁLTÁS - Proven incompetent bunch of thiefs. If I vote on them, nothing will change in this country, but there is a very slight chance that FIDESZ does not win. I don't think voting for the "lesser bad" is a good thing to do as it only preserves the current -awful- state of politics. So I am leaning towards no.

Amongst most of my friends (most of who represent well-educated young people living in Budapest or abroad) FIDESZ is unacceptable due to their actions in the past 4 years, so is JOBBIK - their rhetorics and lack of tolerance against certain communities/groups cuts them from the list of options. I personally don't consider JOBBIK as much a threat as they are positioned in the western media, even though they still continue to insult my ancestors. They are destined continue to become more centric more simialar to far-right parties in Western Europe ans drop their extremist bullshit.
So there are basically two options:
1. vote on LMP hoping they can stay in the parliament and prepare for at least 4 years of additional FIDESZ rule.
2. hold back vomiting and vote on KORMÁNYVÁLTÁS, who are as incompetent and stealing assholes as FIDESZ members, but at least they don't interfere that much with your daily life.

Problem is we are a minority and there are additional major voting groups. The list is not comprehensive:

A. 3+ million pensioners, 30% of the country. They are practically split on simple lines, but generally vote on who promises the more pension - and FIDESZ did well in that with populist promise:
- those who did not like the communist era vote on FIDESZ
- those who preferred communists era to today vote on MSZP
- those who are really desperate with their living conditions (and there are many) vote on JOBBIK

B. Offshore-Hungarians. FIDESZ provided basic voting rights for them (note there are 3+ million Hungarians living outside of Hungary, mainly in Romania, Slovakia and Serbia), as the leftist parties have hurt them several times not supporting them properly.  Only a fraction of these people are expected to vote, but they will all vote on FIDESZ or maybe JOBBIK.

C. Economic Elite, maybe 1%: A few people with a lot of economic power - all FIDESZ voters so they can continue to steal taxes.

D. "Ratko kids" - those born on the 50s, when there was a big campaign to promote having children - The last remaining base of MSZP.

E. Those living in the poor Eastern-Hungarian regions: Mostly JOBBIK as other parties are proven not to give a shit on their needs, while JOBBIK recognised this and does care about their problems. 

F. Those living in small to mid-size countryside towns in the not so poor areas:  The strongest FIDESZ base, the whole rhetoric and actions of FIDESZ is built to resonance with the needs of such people. "Strong country, resistance against EU, please state, support me and let me know what to do."

G. Budapest: People are more open and liberal here, so the leftist parties and LMP is stronger than anywhere else.

H. Gypsies: They are not properly represented by any party and not well organized Naturally they will not vote on Jobbik and in most cases they vote either FIDESZ or MSZP, often by being promised some money for their votes.