Estimation game

[CTG]

One of the reasons: when I'm in the office, this forum is the only place where I can BÖFF.

In China you could also BÖFF during your presentation. True story!

A one way ticket, please!

[Usrin]

RESULTS, ROUND 12:

1. Fine for driving 131 km/h on a Norwegian motorway (in NOK)
Answer: 6500 NOK
The speed limit is only 100 km/h, so driving 131 km/h is a serious violation. For driving 140 km/h, you can immediately say goodbye to your licence.

3,000 - Duplode
3,000 - Zak McKracken
1,200 - Bonzai Joe
700 - Alan Rotoi
600 - Akoss Poo
0 - Chulk
0 - CTG
DQ - Friker (Sorry, but estimating the value of NOK was a part of the game. The tip was 27 EUR, equal to ca. 204 NOK.)


2. Highest ever recorded temperature in Kenya
Answer: 42.6°C
For those who overestimated: the highest temperatures on the Earth don't occur along the Equator (too many clouds and rain), but in the deserts north and south of it.

42.1 - Duplode [almost exact!]
44.4 - Chulk
40.5 - Bonzai Joe
39.0 - Akoss Poo
47.0 - Friker
49.9 - CTG
52.0 - Alan Rotoi
56.0 - Zak McKracken


3. Elevation of the lowermost point of the Norwegian road network (compared to sea level)
Answer: -287 m
Fjords are deep, so the tunnels crossing them usually have to run 100-200 m below sea level. The deepest one is on the road between Bergen and Trondheim.

-44 - Zak McKracken
-17 - Friker
-13 - CTG
-11 - Bonzai Joe
-10 - Chulk
-8 - Akoss Poo
-5.2 - Duplode
+2500 - Alan Rotoi [did you mistake Norway for Tibet?]


4. Distance of the farthest man-made object from Earth (km, 04.03.2013)
Answer: 18,483,600,000 km
Surprisingly it is not Pioneer 10 (the first spacecraft to the outer solar system, launched in 1972), but Voyager 1, launched in 1977. (More straight route and acceleration by the gravity of planets can also count.) Despite this, CTG's calculation was very successful.

19,000,000,000 - CTG
15,000,000,000 - Chulk
7,200,000,000 - Duplode
6,500,000,000 - Akoss Poo
5,777,777,777 - Friker
950,000,000 - Bonzai Joe
44,000,000 - Zak McKracken
1,500,000,000,000 - Alan Rotoi


5. Length of the longest ever reign of a pope (days)
Answer: ~12,505 days
I admit that I fucked up this question. I've forgotten that St Peter is also regarded as a pope, and the day of his death is not exactly known. The Catholic tradition says that he died on 29 June 67, giving the above length. Luckily, the uncertainty range is between 11230-12690 days, so it couldn't change the winner. (The first 'ordinary' pope on the list is Pius IX, 1846–1878, 11,560 days.)

12,000 - Chulk
9,876 - Duplode
9,125 - Alan Rotoi
16,271 - Akoss Poo
16,271 - Bonzai Joe [how did you manage to get the same number? ]
16,758 - CTG
20,777 - Friker
44,444 - Zak McKracken [122 years?]


6. Annual beer consumption per capita in Slovakia (litres, 2010)
Answer: 64 l
What a shame for the Slovaks! This value is rapidly falling, causing that they drink even less beer than Hungarians (70 l/year)... And they're nowhere compared to the Czechs (132 l/year).

52 - Chulk
98 - Bonzai Joe
99.899 - CTG
4.5 - Duplode [less than one per month? Slovaks would die out if it was true!]
139.5 - Akoss Poo
144 - Zak McKracken
150 - Alan Rotoi
477 - Friker [I guess it is your own consumption ]


7. Number of Sébastien Loeb's second places in WRC rallies
Answer: 29
Not so much compared to the 77 victories. Notably, he was third only 9 times! Btw, your tips were good overall.

23 - Duplode
35 - Chulk
36 - Bonzai Joe [almost a three-way tie!]
19 - CTG
17 - Friker
42 - Zak McKracken
14 - Alan Rotoi
10 - Akoss Poo


8. Opening year of the first public flush toilet in the world
Answer: 1851
It was the so-called "Monkey Closet" at an exhibition in Hyde Park, London. One penny had to be paid to use it.

1862 - Bonzai Joe
1837 - Duplode
1877 - Friker
1823 - Alan Rotoi
1880 - Zak McKracken
1881 - Chulk
1905 - CTG


9. The highest speed ever reached by an electric car (km/h)
Answer: 517.942 km/h
Reached by the Buckeye Bullet 1 (designed for record-breaking) on the dried bottom of a salt lake in the US.

333 - Chulk
320 - Duplode
320 - Zak McKracken
312 - Bonzai Joe
277 - Friker
249.899 - CTG
190 - Alan Rotoi
165 - Akoss Poo


10. Date of the next total solar eclipse visible from mainland Europe
Answer: 12/08/2026
It will be visible from Spain. Btw, if I didn't ask it for mainland, the answer would be 20/03/2015, with total eclipse from the Faeroe Islands and Svalbard.

03/07/2025 - Akoss Poo
22/07/2033 - CTG
03/07/2019 - Zak McKracken [all-Hungarian podium ]
17/07/2017 - Friker
23/03/2017 - Bonzai Joe
05/03/2013 - Alan Rotoi
17/06/2040 - Chulk
13/04/2097 - Duplode


11. Average attendance at the home matches of Viking Stavanger in Norwegian 1st league (2012)
Answer: 9,894
Was more than 15,000 a few years ago; then decreased year by year due to becoming a poor-mediocre team after the bronze medal in 2007. The average of the estimations (10,470) is very close to the answer.

6,000 - Zak McKracken
5,617 - Bonzai Joe
15,000 - Alan Rotoi
15,000 - Chulk
2,393 - Akoss Poo
18,972 - Duplode
777 - Friker
19,999 - CTG


12. Depth of the deepest hole ever drilled on Earth (below surface)
Answer: 12,262 m
Drilled by the Soviets (who else?) on the Kola Peninsula. It was planned for 15 km, but they gave it up in 1989. (In the dying USSR, they didn't have enough money to solve the technical problems caused by the temperature higher than expected.)

14,076 - Akoss Poo
10,000 - Chulk
8,900 - Alan Rotoi
777 - Friker
34,000 - Zak McKracken
40,000 - Bonzai Joe
48,500 - Duplode
99,899 - CTG


13. Improvement of men's high jump world record during the lifetime of Zlatan Ibrahimovic (cm)
Answer: 9 cm
He was born on 3 Oct 1981. The world record of high jump was 236 cm that time; now it is 245 cm (not improved since 1993).

10 - CTG
7 - Friker
6 - Akoss Poo
12 - Zak McKracken [tie on the 3rd place]
4 - Bonzai Joe
3 - Alan Rotoi
19 - Duplode
20 - Chulk


+1. Official best 100m time of Viki (my "almost girlfriend" in 2004-2005) in high heeled shoes a.k.a. picsacipö (with heels higher than 8 cm and narrower than 1.5 cm)
Answer: 15.90 sec

It has to be known that she was a runner earlier. Her high-heeled record was achieved at this event (and was enough for the 8th place):

Stiletto run again (now with video): dedicated to Akoss Poo, secret lover of Helen shoes!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INeirKlOCco#noexternalembed

18.89 - CTG
20.16 - Akoss Poo
27.00 - Friker
32.00 - Chulk
32.00 - Zak McKracken
33.67 - Bonzai Joe
57.00 - Duplode
6:00.00 - Alan Rotoi [I think even any of us would be faster than 1 km/h in high heeled shoes]



SCOREBOARD OF ROUND 12:

4 - Chulk (Keeping his good form, despite of having some tips completely off. Congratulations!)
3 - CTG / Duplode / Zak McKracken
2 - Akoss Poo
1 - Bonzai Joe
0 - Alan Rotoi / Friker


Overall standings:

40 - Chulk
30 - Zak McKracken
25 - Duplode
23 - Akoss Poo
20 - Usrin
18 - Bonzai Joe
11 - CTG
4 - Friker
3 - Argammon
2 - SuperBrian
1 - Alan Rotoi

[Usrin]

One of the reasons: when I'm in the office, this forum is the only place where I can BÖFF.

In China you could also BÖFF during your presentation. True story!

I've known about this habit of the Chinese, but I thought it has started to change. Happy to see that I was wrong. Let's have the next Stunts Meeting in China! BÖFF!

[Chulk]

8. Opening year of the first public flush toilet in the world
Answer: 1851
It was the so-called "Monkey Closet" at an exhibition in Hyde Park, London. One penny had to be paid to use it.

I guess that's where the expression "spend a penny" comes from...

[alanrotoi]

LOL seems I'm not good on it, but it's fun anyway

[CTG]

So it's Chulk's turn now.

[Chulk]

So it's Chulk's turn now.

Nope. It's Zak's first, then me

[zaqrack]

So it's Chulk's turn now.

Nope. It's Zak's first, then me

I will set them soon...

[CTG]

OK. If I win a round soon, I don't want to write questions (I did it too many times at the beginning ) and the problem is solved.

[Akoss Poo a.k.a. Zorromeister]

OK. If I win a round soon, I don't want to write questions (I did it too many times at the beginning ) and the problem is solved.

And if there's a tie for the first place, I recommend using 7-7 questions from both winners (5-5 if there are three winners). Thus, the tied winner could complere half a (one third) round as well.

I'd also recommend using 0.5-0.5 (0.33-0.33-0.33) points if there are multiple best estimators for a question (this should be applied for all previous rounds as well).

[CTG]

I'd also recommend using 0.5-0.5 (0.33-0.33-0.33) points if there are multiple best estimators for a question (this should be applied for all previous rounds as well).

Nope.

[Friker]

I'd also recommend using 0.5-0.5 (0.33-0.33-0.33) points if there are multiple best estimators for a question (this should be applied for all previous rounds as well).

Nope

[BonzaiJoe]

And if there's a tie for the first place, I recommend using 7-7 questions from both winners (5-5 if there are three winners). Thus, the tied winner could complere half a (one third) round as well.

That's too much of a mess.

I'd also recommend using 0.5-0.5 (0.33-0.33-0.33) points if there are multiple best estimators for a question (this should be applied for all previous rounds as well).

Yes, this is obvious. I don't see why some questions should be worth twice as much as the others. The game is about coming closest to the answer. "Closest" means closer than everyone else. If you and another person have the same answer, you were not closer than the others. You were equally close. You weren't as good as someone who was closer than everyone else.

An easy example to demonstrate that the current system is nonsense and unfair:

How long is blablablablabla? Answer: 24 m

A: 19
B: 19
C: 19
D: 19
E: 19
F: 19
G: 18

Now A, B, C, D, E and F each get 1 point, but G gets 0 points. This means that G loses a lot in the overall standings (because not only one person, but several people are awarded more points than him), which he would not have lost if the others had different guesses, even if their guesses had been closer to the actual answer. (for example: 24-23-22-21-20-19).


But anyway, it's only a small issue because the actual effect is minimal. However, I can't see how anyone could think the current system is better in principle.

[Chulk]

I would count 2º best tips in round ties to define who writes the next questions.
And keeping best tip ties 1-1, as there are only a few of those and it's not worth it to complicate things further.

[Duplode]

Since we are now expounding all weaknesses of the rules, I will mention the most insidious one: relative versus absolute differences. Suppose the question is "What is the distance between towns Foo and Bar?", with the answer being 500km. 1000km is clearly a better answer than 10km (correct order of magnitude versus more than two orders away); yet 10km will be rated higher as the absolute difference is smaller. It is probably not worth it trying to fix that though - relative differences do not work for some kinds of questions (e.g. those involving dates), and the issue is not serious if the guesses are not too bad overall.

Splitting points on ties is a sensible idea, though the status quo doesn't really bother me. If we were to recount the overall scores as Akoss suggested, however, there might be a case for switching to average points per round. As it is now, if one reaches a 100% winning ratio s/he will be limited to half of the total points due to spending half of the rounds preparing the questions.